If you are like me you have received a lot of information from different websites about COVID19. The good news is that we don’t actually have a shortage of toilet paper, even though the shelves are temporarily bare. Personally, I prefer a bidet as it saves on paper and the sewer system. But try and remain calm, the stores will be restocked as they adjust to the higher than usual demand.
Social Distancing to Flatten the Curve
What is flattening the curve or social distancing? Social distancing and flattening the curve are important because they are meant to prevent the rapid spread of the virus from overwhelming the healthcare system. While 80% of people who contract the virus will have mild symptoms, 20% of those whom contract the virus will experience severe symptoms, requiring hospitalization and a percentage will likely require Intensive Care Units.
In my hospital, we are limited to 20 Intensive Care beds. Ten could be empty, but what would happen if we ended up with 100 new cases of COVID19? Twenty patients would very likely need ICU, and that could leave ten patients who need ICU, without beds. If you multiply this, you see how it can get out of hand quickly.
In Italy it did, however in Italy, they are dealing with a high density of population. In their hospitals they are overwhelmed by patients and they are being forced to make tough decisions. In the US, we’re trying to prevent from being forced to turn patients away.
The reasons that kids have been released from schools, bars have been closed, and people are being asked to isolate, it’s meant to decrease the spread of the virus (flatten the curve), so that our hospitals are not overwhelmed by the sick.
Here is the good news: when China hit their peak rate of infection, in two weeks 95% had recovered. It is always darkest before the dawn.
Wash your hands, avoid being in places with large groups of people, and know that this virus will pass. It’s serious, and ask testing kits arrive, we’ll end up seeing a big spike in confirmed cases. This is not the same thing as having a spike in the number of sick, it’s just that the tests will be recording new data.
As a physician, father, and community member, along with all of you, I’m hopeful we’ll have a vaccine developed quickly, or discover an anti-viral that will offer a cure and recovery. Until then, I’m taking precautions and my fridge is stocked.
Be well.